Vanishing point: the rise of the invisible computer - and Moore's law

“Shrinking chips no longer makes them faster or more efficient in the way that it used to. At the same time, the rising cost of the ultra-sophisticated equipment needed to make the chips is eroding the financial gains. Moore’s second law, more light-hearted than his first, states that the cost of a “foundry”, as such factories are called, doubles every four years. A modern one leaves little change from $10bn. Even for Intel, that is a lot of money.

The result is a consensus among Silicon Valley’s experts that Moore’s law is near its end. “From an economic standpoint, Moore’s law is dead,” says Linley Gwennap, who runs a Silicon Valley analysis firm. Dario Gil, IBM’s head of research and development, is similarly frank: “I would say categorically that the future of computing cannot just be Moore’s law any more.” Bob Colwell, a former chip designer at Intel, thinks the industry may be able to get down to chips whose components are just five nanometres apart by the early 2020s – “but you’ll struggle to persuade me that they’ll get much further than that”.”

Vanishing point: the rise of the invisible computer
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/26/vanishing-point-rise-invisible-computer
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Why Hollywood as We Know It Is Already Over (Vanity Fair)

“But the real threat isn’t China. It’s Silicon Valley. Hollywood, in its over-reliance on franchises, has ceded the vast majority of the more stimulating content to premium networks and over-the-top services such as HBO and Showtime, and, increasingly, digital-native platforms such as Netflix and Amazon. These companies also have access to analytics tools that Hollywood could never fathom, and an allergy to its inefficiency. Few have seen the change as closely as Diller himself, who went from running Paramount and Fox to building his own tech empire, IAC. “I don’t know why anyone would want a movie company today,” Diller said at Vanity Fair’s New Establishment Summit in October. “They don’t make movies; they make hats and whistles.” (Half of the people in the audience, likely representing the tech industry, laughed at this quip; the other half, from Hollywood, cringed.) When I spoke to Mike Moritz, the iconic venture capitalist, backstage at the event, he noted that a nominal investment in a somewhat successful tech company could generate more money than Hollywood’s top-grossing movies. “In my mind,” he said, “Hollywood is dying.””

Why Hollywood as We Know It Is Already Over
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/01/why-hollywood-as-we-know-it-is-already-over
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Electric cars and cheap solar 'could halt fossil fuel growth by 2020'

“Polluting fuels could lose 10% of market share to solar power and clean cars within a decade, the report by the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London and the Carbon Tracker Initiative found.

A 10% loss of market share was enough to cause the collapse of the coal mining industry in the US, while Europe’s five major utilities lost €100bn (£85bn) between 2008 and 2013 because they did not prepare for an 8% increase in renewables, the report said.

Big energy companies are seriously underestimating the low-carbon transition by sticking to their “business as usual” scenarios which expect continued growth of fossil fuels, and could see their assets “stranded”, the study claims.”

Electric cars and cheap solar 'could halt fossil fuel growth by 2020'
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/feb/02/electric-cars-cheap-solar-power-halt-fossil-fuel-growth-2020
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Can We Balance Human Ethics With Artificial Intelligence? - Techonomy

“We should not let Silicon Valley be the mission control for humanity,” argues futurist Gerd Leonhard, author of a new book called Tech versus Humanity: The coming clash between man and machine.

If autonomous AI software, crunching data far more rapidly than humans, can help eradicate disease and poverty and introduce societal improvements and efficiencies, then we must embrace it, Leonhard says. But “at the same time we have to have governance. And right now there is no such thing.” He and others are pushing for human values to be codified into the design of AI systems.”

Can We Balance Human Ethics With Artificial Intelligence? - Techonomy
http://techonomy.com/2017/01/how-will-ai-decide-who-lives-and-who-dies/
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We’re Building a World-Size Robot, and We Don’t Even Realize It (Bruce Schneier) - so what should NOT be connected

“Our only solution will be regulation, and that regulation will be foisted on us by a government desperate to “do something” in the face of disaster.

In this article I want to outline the problems, both technical and political, and point to some regulatory solutions. Regulation might be a dirty word in today’s political climate, but security is the exception to our small-government bias. And as the threats posed by computers become greater and more catastrophic, regulation will be inevitable. So now’s the time to start thinking about it.

We also need to reverse the trend to connect everything to the internet. And if we risk harm and even death, we need to think twice about what we connect and what we deliberately leave uncomputerized.

If we get this wrong, the computer industry will look like the pharmaceutical industry, or the aircraft industry. But if we get this right, we can maintain the innovative environment of the internet that has given us so much.”

We’re Building a World-Size Robot, and We Don’t Even Realize It
http://nymag.com/selectall/2017/01/the-internet-of-things-dangerous-future-bruce-schneier.html
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Tumultuous Times: 'Political Uncertainty Has Doubled Around the World' - SPIEGEL ONLINE

“Decreasing economic growth and increasing inequality leads to increased uncertainty. The U.S. and, to a certain extent, countries in Europe as well, have experienced growing inequality within their population for decades -- a small group of people own the lion's share of the wealth. Populists take advantage of this, and their policies are extremely hard to predict. And this has serious consequences. Companies shy away from risk, postponing their investment decisions in times of uncertainty, the stock markets get nervous and unemployment threatens to increase.”

Tumultuous Times: 'Political Uncertainty Has Doubled Around the World' - SPIEGEL ONLINE - International
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-stanford-economist-on-political-uncertainty-of-trump-and-brexit-a-1131270.html
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The Gradual Disappearance of Jobs - very good read on UBI and negative income tax

“Once Moravec’s paradox is relegated to the history books, formerly protected unskilled low wage jobs will disappear due to automation. The only jobs to persist will be those needing creativity and an ability to work with artificial intelligences, an aptitude that will be seen as a positive skill and then as a way to achieve a larger social valorisation. At some point, the switchover to mass automation will be so overwhelming that the negative income tax will probably become toxic while a universal basic income will more efficiently stabilize our societies.”

The Gradual Disappearance of Jobs
http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/Gazengel20170125
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The Gradual Disappearance of Jobs

“Jacques Attali in France, economist and social theorist, asked for a moratorium on AI research following a Google publication about an experiment on two artificial intelligences inventing encryption of their own that a third AI failed to decipher; or also the alert raised by Stephen Hawking, Bill Gates and Elon Musk (see note ). Even if we’re ruling the artificial intelligence existential risk issue out, which does deserve a very precise analysis, the less dramatic hazards of a society without jobs will also challenge us. What of a world where machines dominate all production activities without any place for human beings - outdated, too slow and lacking the endurance to sustain a task to meet the new profitability standard dictated by autonomous machines?”

The Gradual Disappearance of Jobs
http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/Gazengel20170125
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Why It Matters That Human Poker Pros Are Getting Trounced By an AI

“We’re at the halfway point of the epic 20-day, 150,000-hand “Brains Vs. Artificial Intelligence” Texas Hold’em Poker tournament, and a machine named Libratus is trouncing a quartet of professional human players. Should the machine maintain its substantial lead—currently at $701,242—it will be considered a major milestone in the history of AI. Here’s why.”

Why It Matters That Human Poker Pros Are Getting Trounced By an AI
http://gizmodo.com/why-it-matters-that-human-poker-pros-are-getting-trounc-1791565551
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Davos leaders: we might be heading for a jobless world, but that’s not as bad as it sounds? Via WEF

“Guy Standing’s argument for a universal basic income (which he shared on the Forum’s blog back in December) is based on a pretty simple but powerful idea: that no matter who we are – a Wall Street banker or a school janitor – we are all contributing to society, and therefore deserve a fair share of its wealth.

The danger, philosopher Michael Sandel argued in a session on the topic, is that others now understand this income as a form of compensation for those whose skills are being rendered obsolete by the digital revolution.

“We’d essentially be saying: ‘We’re going to pay you off in exchange for you accepting a world in which your contribution to the common good isn’t really required, and what you do with your time, that’s your business.’ I think that would be corrosive,” he argued.

That’s because for most people, work is about so much more than just clocking in and picking up a pay check at the end of the month: our jobs are a fundamental part of our identity.

“Work is about more than making a living: it’s also a source of meaning,” Sandel said in another session. You take away that meaning and you end up with an understandably angry, frustrated group of people – rather like what we’re starting to see across the world.”

Davos leaders: we might be heading for a jobless world, but that’s not as bad as it sounds
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/davos-jobless-world-unemployment/
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